MURUGAVEL

BRAZIL - IBOVESPA SAO PAULO - If it close below 33000 two days in a row, then it may come down to 19000+

UK - FTSE 100 - Twelve years low was 3278. Friday close was 3932. It may going to take support around that twelve years low. But it close this year below that level, downtrend may continue another several years.

JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 - Twenty five years low was 7600. Friday Close was 8276. So this year if it close below 7600, God only can save the Japan Stock Market.

U.S.A. - Dow Jones Industrial Average - 7000+ will be the support. But.. But... If it close this year below 7000, then it may going to trade three digit figures (ie., below 1000) in coming year(s).

NIFTY - Most probably Yesterday Low of 3199 or coming week low may be the bottom-out for the recent fall. From here we may expect a very decent pull-back that may go upto 3800 or 4050. It may be in a jig-jack pattern. Nov.08 may be the upside month and next fall may starts once again in Dec. 08. In that fall it may touch 2800. That may be the final fall for this downtrend market which was started at 6357 on Jan.'08. (Please refer my Opinion posted on 27th January 2008 titled as VISSION or MISSION) But.. But... If it close below 2800 for two or three days in a row then next stop may be 2000-1800. After all, It is my Opinion only.

NIFTY - Even the pullback unable to go beyond 4300. So That was the pull-back for the so called American bail out package of $700 billion that to unable convince the congress till date. Now What next to our NIFTY is, If It break and close below 3900, may expect 3500 to 3200.

NIFTY - Technically speaking after the double-bottom formation from 3790-3800, Pull-back can not go beyond 4400-4450. But. but.. last week high voltage drama in the american financial markets and because of that drama, entire world stock markets actions and reactions raises various doubts about the high of nifty. So beyond 4450 , it may go upto 4800+ to 4900+. (In coming days perception will dominate over technicals)

NIFTY - As expected (Opinion posted on 08 September 08 and 30 August 08) fall came and now arrested at 3900+ for time-being. May expect a pullback upto 4200-4250. Falling momentum aggreviate once break and close below 3900.

CRUDE OIL -  Now nearing the expected target  of  $ 101-98 (refer 09 August 08 posted opinion). May expect  a very good bounce from there.  dead cat bounce or dead rat bounce (whatever you call it). But. But.. If It it close below $ 99-98 in two days in a row then may expect $ 85-82.  

NIFTY - Most probably Either today or this week high may be the TOP-OUT for this pull back rally , which was started at 3790 on july 08.

NIFTY - If Close above 4400, then may expect some more pullback upto 4550-4600. Otherwise fall will continue in a side ways manner. In downside may expect 4100 and below that 3900. Falling momentum starts once it breaks and close below 3900.

NIFTY - July 26, 2008 posted opinion (titled ROUND TWO) is still valid. May expect 4700-4900 levels and may hold this levels (4400-4900) some more time. THIS IS ONLY A PULL BACK RALLY.

CRUDE OIL gave the TOP OUT signal on third week of JULY 2008(refer july 18, 2008 posted opinion), now the fall is going on. May expect optimum downside target of $ 101 - 98 levels.

NIFTY - As expected after the pullback of 4485, now the correction is going on. In this correction it may come down to 4250 and/or 4100 levels. From there, may expect once again the pullback rise but next time it may be slow and steady. If it break and close above 4485 then that pullback rise may go even upto 4700-4900 levels. It may hold this level (ie.4400-4900) for some more time to distribute. May expect next big fall once again in September '08 onwards . I MAY BE WRONG. BUT IT IS MY OPINION.

NIFTY - Eventhough Weekly Chart Showing good sign of Downtrend arrest pattern (time being ONLY). But next week Political Trend may decide the Market Trend. (ie. next PULL BACK STRENGTH)

CRUDE OIL - Topped out @ $. 147.27

NIFTY - Now 3848 is the support for this Fall. May expect a pullback upto 4250 or/and 4485. Trade below 3848 may expect 3600.

N IFTY - Coming week may be the bottom finding week for the next PULL BACK . that bottom may be Minimum 4100-4050 and Optimum 3950-3900 .

What else to say , except to maintain the 05 June 2008 Opinion. So it continues......

NIFTY - May expect a very Big Fall at any time, maximum another 3 to 6 Weeks timeframe. (After all, It is my Opinion only)

NIFTY - Neutral Zone - 4800-4850 ; Upside - 5100-5125 ; Downside - 4625-4600.

NIFTY - Once again marching towards 4850-4800.

March 29, 2008 Opinion still valid. Once again I repeat, 4850-4800 is the crucial level for short term trend.

NIFTY - Last week Nifty unable to hold above the pullback support level of 4800-4850. so now it become the resistance for the next round fall. ie. 4100-4050.

NIFTY , Broken the immediate resistance of 4850-4800 . Now this level will become the support for this pullback. It may go upto 5100. If Close above 5100 for two days in a row. then maximum topout is 5500-5600 . This is pullback rally ONLY.

NIFTY , now the in-between third leg in the downtrend is going on... with a upper resistance of 4800-4850 and marching towards 4100-4050. (No change in VISION OR MISSION opinion dated 27 JAN. 2008) (Last week, Market once again confirming a major downtrend. Major trends often have a way of running further and longer than most people can imagine.)

As for as Nifty is concerned, no change in the earlier opinion. Worst is yet to come.

If NIFTY Close three days consequently above 5600 , then that will be the Major Trend reversal. Unless or otherwise, everything pullback only.

NIFTY - selling arrested around 4800-4830, now expect a rise may be upto 5170-5200.

Just 15 days before, all the market participants (FII, DII, QIB, HNI, RETAIL etc., etc.,) were ready or even invested (committed to invest) 5 lac crore in a company (till date even their website is under construction only), but today, the same market participants are not ready to pump 0.40% (ie.2000 cr.) of the earlier committed amount to take delivery of the same company. Moral of the Story is always PERCEPTION dominates the Market price, technical and fundamentals just following it.

Above 5400 ; Target 5650-5680. unless otherwise sideways pattern of 5000+ to 5300+ Next round of Sell mode starts once its CLOSE below 5000.

Before making my opinion, I want to EMPHASIS that it is my opinion and it may be wrong but opinions are opinions. The recent sharp fall was the first leg of DOWNTREND. Now the pullback is going on... After that expect a fall once again and pullback again and again fall... This process will go on another 6 months to 15 months. The worst and final fall of this downtrend journey NIFTY   touch 3200-2800. Next UPTREND will start from there. In that uptrend, NIFTY may be going to trade five digit figure on or after the year 2012. In the present circumstance(based on the past records and future risk & potential), this is my opinion. If the situations demand, I may change my opinion. WATCH.....

now upside may expect 5400-5430

next target 4480-4450 (this may happen after a pullback or even without...)

3I INFOTECH below 129 ACC below 904 AMBUJACEM below 132 APTECHT below 304 ARVINDMILL below 68 BIOCON below 520 BONGAIREFN below 87 DIVISLAB below 1551 ESCORTS below 127 GESHIP below 451 GMRINFRA below 197 GRASIM below 3279 HDFCBANK below 1537 HINDOILEXP below 124 HINDZINC below 716 HOTELEELA below 57 INDIACEM below 267 INFOSYSTCH below 1423 JSTAINLESS below 203 KPIT below 111 LAXMIMACH below 2987 MARUTI below 891 MATRIXLABS below 210 MOSERBAER below 259 NAGARCONST below 282 NAGARFERT below 64 NIITTECH below 201 PATNI below 277 SAIL below 235 SATYAMCOMP below 379 SESAGOA below 3266 TCS below 952 ULTRACEMCO below 923

Marching towards around 5500

INDIA - Support 18000, 16000 Target 24000, 26500 BRAZIL - Support 58000, 51000 Target - 76000, 83500 CHINA - Support 4800, 3500 Target 7000, 8400 HANGSENG - Support 26500, 21000 Target 34500, 40000 SINGAPORE - Resistance 3450 , 4000 Target 3000, 2500 JAPAN - Resistance 16000, 17000 Target 13500, 12200 DOW - Resistance 13200, Target 12000, 10800

STOCKS - BREAKOUT - TARGET ADORWELD - 320 - 520 & 870 AEGISCHEM - 325 - 540 ANDHRABANK - 124 - 191 ANSALHSG - 405 - 663 APOLLOHOSP - 592 - 710 & 980 ATFL - 290 - 555 ATLASCYCLE - 215 - 394 AUTOAXLES - 740 - 1144 AVTNPL - 158 - 244 BAJAUTOFIN - 490 - 590 BALMLAWRIE - 675 - 1038 BALRAMCHIN - 115 - 180 & 200 BATAINDIA - 295 - 535 BEML - 1860 - 2850 BERGEPAINT - 64 - 95 BHARATFORG - 395 - 480 & 720 BOC - 245 - 365 BOMDYEING - 990 - 1540 BONGAIREFN - 109 - 174 BPCL - 535 - 836-886 COLPAL - 477 - 676 & 758 CORPBANK 515 - 824 ENGINERSIN - 1020 - 1640 ESABINDIA - 567 - 895 FINPIPE - 100 - 155 & 196 FIRSTLEASE - 80 - 123 GARDENSILK - 90 - 175 GHCL - 197 - 283 GKW - 80 - 160 GMBREW - 160 - 236 & 436 GODFRYPHLP - 1700 - 2416 GREAVESCOT - 466 - 694 GSKCONS - 720 - 1038 GTOFFSHORE - 900 - 1308 GUJALKALI - 260 - 509 HCL-INSYS - 280 - 442 HINDALCO - 250 - 380 HINDDORROL - 210 - 363 HINDOILEXP - 195 - 328 HINDPETRO - 340 - 550 & 1002 HOTELEELA - 70 - 90 & 139 IFG...

At first sight, still more come..... HIMATSEIDE - 121 LIBERTSHOE - 146 PFIZER - 807 SWARAJMAZD - 335

STOCKS - CMP(28DEC07) ALPSINDUS - 72 BERGEPAINT - 64 BOC - 197 BPL - 113 GDL - 162 HYDRBADIND - 317 ITC - 206 KAKATCEM - 115 MICROTECH - 313 PBAINFRA - 158

The mid cap and small cap rally started nov 2007 and it may continue another one to two months like every year. Most of the stocks rally are purely momentum play. So make use of it and get out.

STOCKS - CMP(14/12/2007) AMAR - 47 ASHIMASYN - 16 ASSAMCO - 47 BALPHARAM - 44 BSL - 36 BVXL - 27 CHESLINTEX - 24 CIMCOBIRLA - 46 DCW - Breakout 31 Target 39 , 60 DECOLIGHT - 39 GUFICBIO - 17 KCPSUGIND - 28 MUKANDENGG - Breakout 51 Target 86 , 120 NATNLSTEEL - Breakout 41 Target 66 PARACABLES - 41 RUCHINFRA - Breakout 50 Target 73 SAKUMA - 32 SUPPETRO - Breakout 50 Target 62, 96

STOCKS - CMP (12/12/2007) ASHOKLEY - 53 AXIS-IT&T - 15 BERGERPAINT - 62 BOMDYEING - 757 CELEBRITY - 75 CLNINDIA - 340 DCM - 83 DWARKESH - 80 EIDPARRY - 163 ELGITYRE - 32 EVEREADY - 69 EVERESTIND - 110 FDC - 41 FINCABLES - 107 FINPIPE - 101 GANGOTRI -22 GILLETTE - 1014 GTNIND - 37 GTNTEX -24 HINDMOTOR - 52 HINDUJAVEN - 690 INDIANCARD - 229 INDNIPPON - 178 ITI - 60 JAYSREETEA - 149 KABRAEXTRU - 118 KESARENT - 92 MANUGRAPH - 170 MONSANTO - 1536 MROTECH - 65 NAHARSPING - 114 NOVAPANIND - 64 PRICOL - 34 RAMCOIND -1364 RAYMOND -412 SOMATEX - 40 SSWL - 196 UCALFUEL - 98 UPERGANGES - 105 VARUNSHIP - 84 VDOONAPPL - 42 VIDEOIND - 610

STOCKS - CMP(07DEC07) ADORWELD - 240 AMDMET - 51 AZTECSOFT - 70 BAJAJAUTOFIN - 345 BHARATGEAR - 60 BLUESTINFO - 95 BOSCHCHASY - 419 BROADCAST - 65 CMC - 1095 GEOMETRIC - 87 HELIOSMATH - 121 HOPFL - 269 MINDTREE - 504 ONWARDTECH - 41 PFIZER - 731 POLARIS - 125 PRECOT - 139 ROHLTD - 147 RSSOFTWARE - 40 SASKEN -321 SUNDRMFAST - 52 TRENT - 566

Buy that which is showing strenth - sell that is showing weakness. The Public continues to buy when prices have fallen. The professional buys because prices have rallied. This difference may not sound logical, but buying strength works. The rule of survival is not to "buy low, sell high", but to "buy higher and sell higher". Furthermore, when comparing varius stocks within a group, buy only the strongest and sell the weakest. When putting a trade, enter it as if it has the potential to be the biggest trade of the year. Don't enter a trade until it has been well thought out, a campaign has been devised for adding to the trade, and contingency plans set for exiting the trade. Be patient. If a trade is missed, wait for a correction to occur before putting the trade on. Be patient. Once a trade is put on, allow it time to develop and give it time to create the profits you expected . Be patient. The old adage that "you never go broke taking a profit" is ...

STOCKS - CMP AEGISCHEM - 229 AKSHOPTFBR 60 BALRAMCHIN - 101 BELCERAMIC - 15 CHEMPLAST - 11.20 EUROTEXIND - 35 HARRMALAYA - 94 NRC - 28 ORIENTPPR - 684 SURAJDIAMN - 64 WELSPUNIND - 90

APARINDS - Breakout 299 ; Target 328 & 475 APTECHT - Breakout 427 ; Target 470 & 558 BIRLAJUTE - Breakout 384 ; Target 420 & 665 CENTBOP - Breakout 47 ; Target 52-54 NECLIFE - Breakout 285 ; Target 310 & 500 TRIVENI - Breakout 145 ; Target 200 VIJAYABANK - Breakout 77 ; Target 120

BILT - Above 150, Targert 190 & 250

STOCKS - CMP(16NOV07) AARTIND - 31.60 AEGISCHEM - 217.50 AIAENG - 1478 ALFALAVAL - 1077 BELCERAMIC - 16.25 CHEMPLAST - 12.75 EUROTEXIND - 34 GRAPHITE - 84.45 HARRMALAYA - 98.55 HMT - 99.40 INDSWFTLAB - 56.7 IOC - 619.20 ITI - 62.05 KHAITANELE - 159.75 NETWORK18 - 450.40 NRC - 33.95 ORIENTPPR - 690.15 SAMTEL - 19.85 SHANTIGEAR - 90.8 UCALFUEL - 93.75 WENDT - 821

BRFL - Breakout 275 Target 400 GODREJIND - Breakout 225 Target 292 HCIL - Breakout 420 Target 550 HANAUT - Breakout 2200 Target 2800, 3150 INDIABULLS - Breakout 700 Target 990 MICO - Breakout 4900 Target 6000 PHILIPCARB - Breakout 195 Target 262 TEXMACOLTD - Breakout 1450 Target 2190 WHEELS - Breakout 295 Target 390

STOCKS - CMP(24-OCT.-07) AKSHOPTFBR - 62 ALOKTEXT - 68 BEML - 1487 HCC -186 HINDALCO - 190 MARKSANS - 103 MTNL - 180 SURYAPHARM - 118 WOCKPHARMA - 425

JSTAINLESS - Breakout 178 ; Targets 196, 218 ULTIMATE 267 SIEMENS - Marching towards 1790-1880

DIVISLAB - Marching towards 1580 , 1880

STOCKS - Close Price (28 Sep. 07) ALBK - 108 ANANTRAJ - 1510 ANDHARABANK - 105 ARVINDMILL - 62 BSL - 25 D-LINK - 77 GAMMONIND - 462 HINDOILEXP - 112 INDIACEM - 291 IGL - 129 INDORAMA - 63 INDSWFTLTD - 29 KANORIACHEM - 97 KECINFRA - 29 MUKANDENGG - 33 NOCIL - 36 PIRAMYDRET - 64 RENUKA - 706 SPIC - 25 SYNDIBANK - 92 UTTAMSTL - 47

ABAN 3965 ABIRLANOVA 2014 ACC 1712 ALBK 136 ANDHRABANK 126 APIL 1194 APTECH 496 AXISBANK 823 BANKINDIA 346 BEML 1546 ICICIBANK 1215 IDFC 168 INDIACEM 365 IOB 175 J&KBANK 966 LICHSGFIN 346 LT 3223 MARUTI 1266 NAGARCONST 334 PETRONET 108 PRAJIND 381 RCOM 718 YESBANK 255

RENUKA - Support 660 Breakout 745 Target 920 and 1040

GNFC - Breakout 145 Target 160 Ultimate 212

IDBI - Breakout 131 Target 144 ULTIMATE 212

REL - Breakout 820 Target 1023 ULTIMATE 1276

ABB - 1175 ACC - 1090 AIRDECON - 150 ALOKTEXT - 70 APIL - 794 ARVINDMILL - 53 BEL - 1750 BHEL - 1900 CROMPCREV - 311 DENABANK - 61 EDUCOMP - 2990 FINANTECH - 2575 HCC - 143 IDBI - 130 IFCI - 69 INDUSIND - 57.5 JETAIRWAYS - 834 MAHASEAMLES - 624 MPHAIS - 309 NAGARCONST - 211 NEYVELILIG - 88 RELIANCE - 1950 RNRL - 49 RPL - 120 SAIL - 168 SESAGOA - 1965 STROPTICAL - 231 VOLTAS -154

DEEPAKFERT - 105 ESABINDIA - 495 GSFC - 227 MURUDCERA - 119 NATINLSTEEL - 26 PETRONENGG - 199 SUPPETRO - 26

CHAMBLFERT - Ultimate Target 66-70

LAST 11 sessions, Markets in a bumpy ride. This kind of rollercoaster ride still more to come in coming days. BUT IT IS A NOT BEAR MARKET. As is often the case, the longer the bull market the deeper the corrections become and that's exactly what we are seeing at the moment.

LICHSGFIN - (194) HOLD 4 TO 6 MONTHS

GITANJALI - Marching towards 340-350

ALEMBICLTD - Breakout 82 Target 92 ULTIMATE 116 IBREALEST - Breakout 420 Target 500 & 596 PNC - Breakout 94 Target 117 & 157

ADLABS - Breakout 575; Target 658 AUROPHARMA - Breakout 750; Target 1025 BANKINDIA - Breakout 215 ; Target 300 IDFC - Breakout 115 Target 152 JPASSICIAT - Breakout 755; Target 1045

Stocks (close-04may07) - Support/Breakout AMTEKINDIA(166) 175 APOLLOTYRE(318) 305 BIRLAJUTE(244) 230 INDOTECH(330) 320-310 INOXLEISURE(128) 123 MUDRA(73) 74 SCI(227) 205 SIEMENS(1196) 1225 SOLECENT(280) 290

The Following F&O stocks may have a good upside potential(either spike or full rise) in MAY 2007: ACC BATAINDIA BEL BHARATFORG CANBANK CENTURYTEX CORPBANK CROMPGREAV CUMMINS DIVIS FEDERALBANK GESHIP GMRINFRA GUJAMCEM HCLTECH INDIACEM IVRCL J&K BANK JPASSOCIATE KOTAKBANK LITL M&M MARUTI MCDOWELL MPHASIS NTPC PARSVNATH RCOM SBIN SUNTV SUZLON TTML TVSMOTOR ULTRACEM UTIBANK VOLTAS

Stocks (Close-27/4/07) Support Price ADORWELD (234) 229 AMTEKINDIA (167) 153 APOLLO TYRE(316) 316 ASIANELEC (534) 505 BILT(115) 111 BONGAIREF(47) 45 CYBERMEDIA(107) 102 GUJALKALI(145) 134 IOB(117) 108 LANABS(162) 158 ORIENTBANK(214) 205 PNB(502) 480

The following stocks looks even better above the said (F&O)price: BANKNIFTY 5625 BHARATFORG 328 BHARTIAIRTEL 827 CORPBANK 309 CROMPGREAV 215 DIVISLAB 3557 GMRINFRA 390 ICICIBANK 916 JINDALSTEL 2665 JSTAINLESS 138 LUPIN 680 MAHSEAMLES 537 MPHASIS 331 NDTV 354 ONGC 938 RELCAPITAL 738 RENUKA 470 TATASTEEL 518

JYOTISTRUC - Breakout 195 Target 214 / 238

Based on the 2006-07 results, Forcast for 2007-08 : UPSIDE Best 2700(worst in best 2460) DOWNSIDE Worst 1650 (best in worst 1750)

ABIRLANOVA 1052 AMAR 35-37 ADLABS above 444 CEAT 108 EXIDE 40-42 FINANTECH above 2000 GLAXO 1130 GMRINFRA 360 KALPATPOWER 1129 KEI 72 PANTALOONR above 410 PBAINFRA 85 PRITHVI 270 SPSL above 318-320

NIFTY - As such Bottomed out at 3555 It get more confirmed, If it is CLOSE above 3714

SKUMARSYNF - Support 74-76 Target 112

ENGINERSIN (552) LIBERTSHOE (159) ORCHIDCHEM (232) ORIENTINFO (18) REPRO (142) REVATHI (675) TATASPONGE (115)