NIFTY - A decade from its bottom edge, now What next?

NIFTY (10167) - 
Normally, update the NIFTY,  whenever at a crucial juncture,  It may be micro or macro.  so far, here itself, updated more than 200 times  in the last 11 years Out of them, the best post ever was posted  on 27th January 2008 Till now, that was the best among them. 
It was posted with the title 
"VISION OR MISSION"  (click the above link to see that post)
and the expected level was attained on Oct.2008 

From  Oct 2008 bottom edge of 2252 
  Oct 2017 now   at 10191
That is History 
now, where are we?

The  present Uptrend started from Aug. 2013 
and still, going on...
At some stage, it will be going to top out 
and downtrend will start
Now, the Trillion dollar question is  "When will it?" 

I hope that this time also I can identify the top out  edge  at an appropriate time
 and will proclaim,  but this time, it will not be in the public domain but in private.
Let us wait. 

By the by, below image is the content of the latest micro pattern view of NIFTY dated 27th Sep.

Graphite electrode - other side view

Recently, Indian graphite electrode manufacturers cornered investors’ attention with fundamentals pointing towards a turnaround in the sector. Key manufacturers in India – HEG and Graphite India Graphite electrode manufacturers are the key beneficiary of the improvement in its end market - global steel demand. Industry consolidation leading to lower supply and higher barriers to entry is also positive news. However, a sharp surge in raw material prices and China exports are the factors to watch out for which can cap this upside. Further, our calculations suggest that stock prices of both HEG and Graphite India are trading ahead of the expected pricing dynamics in medium-term. Industry-wide capacity consolidation – lower supply In the last few years, the global graphite electrode industry had witnessed curtailment of capacity (by 210 k tons) on account of weak profitability. Major companies like SGL Carbon and Graftech downsized their capacity by 100 kT and 60 kT, respectively. This has br…

What are graphite electrodes and needle coke?

Graphite electrodes are the main heating element used in an electric arc furnace, a steelmaking process where scrap from old cars or appliances is melted to produce new steel. Electric arc furnaces are cheaper to build than traditional blast furnaces, which make steel from iron ore and are fuelled by coking coal. But the cost of steelmaking is higher since they use steel scrap and powered by electricity. The electrodes are part of the furnace lid and are assembled into columns. Electricity then passes through the electrodes, forming an arc of intense heat that melts the scrap steel. Electrodes vary widely in size but can be up to 0.75 metres (2 and a half feet) in diameter and as much as 2.8 meters (9 feet) long. The largest weigh more than two metric tons. It takes up to 3 kg (6.6 lb) of graphite electrodes to produce one tonne of steel. The tip of the electrode will reach 3,000 degrees Celsius, half the temperature of the sun’s surface. Electrodes are made of graphite because only …

GOCLCORP - as of now 2 X but still hungry


When identified the first and formidable entry edge,  it was @ 200 and now at 565
already 2 X done, still need the ULTIMATE 

email content dated 01st Aug 2016 not only the price but the business snapshot also. (Ultimate purposely erased)

How it behaved in the last one year. Map of GOCL

IGPL - Almost 5 X in 15 months

IGPL (683) -   Identified, when it was at 150+ in  July 2016  at that time, fixed the target 280  but after that, during this 15 months,  5 times target extended,
 including the latest one in 3 days before, set it as 760--780,  Let us see.
Already, it gave almost 400% absolute return  in 15 months 
During this continuous up move journey,  Repeatedly asking the only one question, whenever extend the target
"When TIRUMALCHM was done much higher at price wise, Why not IGPL? (same product manufacturing company,  in fact, higher capacity)
In fact, this is nothing but the justification and conviction for its up move comparing the peer, that'll.
Fortunately, this conviction/justification  worked out well, so far.

IGPL mapped

Graphite Electrodes - It is Hot now but identified in Jan & June itself.

Graphite electrodes manufacturing companies are the hot theme now but these are all already moved up 3 to 4 X in this year itself. Most of the market participants talking about it now.

but as for as GRAPHITE INDIA concerned, identified on 09th Jan 2017 itself,  when it was trading at the first and formidable entry edge of the 90+ level 

Below is the first email content  dated 09th Jan 2017 

and after the above email, already 3 to 4 follow-up extended targets given, including the latest one on 14th Sept. with a  target of 325 which was also met on 15th Sept itself. 


 As for as HEG concerned, identified on 22nd June 2017 only when it was trading at the first and formidable entry edge of the 300+ level  (but at that time itself, already, it was moved up almost 100 % from Jan 2017 low of 150),

Below is the email content  dated 22nd June 2017 

(here, purposely erased the ULTIMATE UPSIDE TARGET) 
as on last Friday, it was upper locked at 819.40 still, the said ULTIMATE is due…

JBMA - almost 100% within 21 sessions, possible when understand the EDGE.

JBM (575.50) 
 Identified when it was at 286 on 05th July 
and said above 300 up move will start
on 06th July, itself, it crossed 300  and went up to 388 on 07th July 
But corrected up to 301.50 on 11th Aug.  (once again supported the entry edge)
from there, within 21 trading sessions,  yesterday made high 593
that means almost 100%, that too, within 21 sessions. 

When understanding the EDGE, 
not only big return,  sometimes, so quick also
this stock is  just one among them
(cannot expect in the all stocks in all the time) 


Holding a stock,  for a long  time of its non-performing period,  does not matter, but  whether hold it or not  while it performs, is 

BOMDYEING - Fast and Furious.

BOMDYEING (156.35)   Identified only on 28th Aug.  and thought that 96 become an EDGE,  It worked out. Fast and furious.
With in 9 trading session from 96 to 161,  that means ~ 66% absolute return. 

Now entered the next orbit, 
Yeh Sheyar Maange More!
but, now, the entry edge also for away. 

Enter at the entry EDGE is more important. 

All the stocks can not perform in all the time. 
Almost every stock give its best in their life cycle in a particular period only. 

Hold a stock,  for a long  time of its non-performing period,  does not matter, but whether hold it or not  when it performs is the matter 

Being associated with me, Whether you will make money or not, time will tell, I can only assure you that you can understand how to approach a stock and when to approach a stock and what are all the edges in the stock.

BEML mapped once again - One of the best identified stock at the bottom itself.

BEML -  The first and formidable entry edge at  120 on Aug. 2013  and again 166 on Oct. 2013 
now at 1883, still to go...

detailed on 30th June 2014 post itself 

BEML map

Now latest news 

KAYA - even after more than a year, still, no improvement

KAYA (883) - Mailed more than a year before,  but till now no improvement

Below is the email content

Below the month chart 


APTECH - from 115 to 300 but it took a year, seems not yet matured

  Identified when it was at 115 in August 2016,  now after a year, yesterday met the fixed target of 280--300.

so from 115 to 300, that means more than 160% absolute in a year  but still on.
Seems, still not matured,  next orbit pinpointed and delivered yesterday. (Once attain the next orbit, will reveal it here)

The first email sent on 22nd Aug. 2016 and  the second follow-up emailed on 08th Sept. 2016
below is the both email content

Can see it in the below picture,  "how it behaved in the last one year" 

EMKAY - from 88 to 233 but it took 4 months

EMKAY (as of now @ 219+) 
Identified on 23rd July 2016 when it was at 81+  
and said as 
"FACE RESIST 88--92 
but above that 
The said resistance had broken only on 28th April 2017 when it closed at 92.20
and today it completed the UUT of 220--240
today so for high 233 and now at 219+
so from 88 to 233  that means 160% absolute  with in 4 months 


can see in the daily chart, "how it behaved in the last one year"

V2RETAIL - from 85 to 360, that too, in a year.

V2RETAIL (as of now at 340) - 
As for as this stock concerned, 
the first & formidable entry EDGE was 85--90
and  the meaningful target  360--380


When it was at 95 on 27th Aug.2016 sent an email and said as,   support 90--85 (after this email, almost 14 days hovering around 90--85 between 29th Aug. 2016 to 16th Sept. 2016) 
SAID TARGET 360--380

today  made high 361.90 and now at 340+ 
so from 85 to 362  that means 325 %, absolute return, that too, with in a year. 
Because of one-year holding, now it will be going to be eligible for Long Term 0% Capital Gain tax also. ****
The first email was sent on 27th August 2016
below is the content

and the follow-up email was sent on 10th October 2016 
below is the content


Can see in the below picture,  How it behaved in the last one year