MURUGAVEL

NIFTY - UPSIDE 3300 and 3500 DOWNSIDE 2900 and 2700

NIFTY - may be top out anywhere between 3100-3250. If it trade above 3250, it will be the signal for breakout . After the breakout it may come down even upto 3000+ but it will be only correction. Upside may expect 3650-3850 But if it unable to break and trade above 3250 then we may expect once again 2500 + Be ready for either way possibility. TOP OUT or BREAK OUT ?

If NIFTY will not break and trade comfortably below 2500 before June 2009 , we may come to a conclusion that the bottom was already over in Oct.2008 itself. (it may be more confirmed, If it break and trade above 3250). i hope that i am the first person to say so. It may be wrong but my opinion is opinion.

NIFTY - No change in the existing Orbit of 2500-3250 (very long sideways moments still continue.....) So it took support at 2500+ and now again try to attack in higherside 2800 and 2900

NIFTY resistance 2800 If it break and close the resist , then target in upside 2900 and 3100. If unable to break the resistance downside we may expect 2600 and 2500. And below 2500  FREE FALL ..... .. ... 

I completly withdraw the 14 Feb.09 positional including NIFTY. When the market is in the single orbit (ie. 2500 to 3250) for the past 18 weeks and moved and trade in between all these 18 weeks, big positional thinking should be avoid ( i got the some reversal signal on second week of feb.09 but it reversed in third week of feb.09 itself). so back to squre one, let the market clear the above mentioned orbit, then think about the next move. Last week most the countries were in new low or near to the new low. ie. one country sentiment dragging the other countries and this process may go on some more time before it delink. In the meantime, GOLD may going to bubble (target $1800 to $2400 it is possible if it trade above $1200) with in 12 to 18 months period and after that bust like CURDE OIL (The same kind of people who manipulated the CRUDE OIL are now trying to play in the GOLD beacuse they don't have any other market to play. For this they may plant stories like curuncies are weak ...

14 Feb.09 all positional stops are near to today's low. Act accordingly.

APIL (cmp 286) - Target 360-460 / Stop 245 CHAMBLFERT (cmp 42) - Target 55 - 67 / Stop 35 GNFC (cmp 63) - Target 99 - 121 / Stop 54 JPASSOCIAT (cmp 75) - Target 128 - 154 / Stop 58 JKLAKSHMI (cmp 42) - Target 74 - 92 / Stop 35 LITL (cmp 137) - Target 174 - 224 / Stop 115 NAGARFERT (cmp 18) - Target 28 - 34 / Stop 14 RAJESHEXPO (cmp 25) - Target 45 - 55 / Stop 19 RELINFRA (cmp 570) - Target 680 - 920 / Stop 505

NIFTY CMP - 2950 TARGET - 3650 - 3850 STOP - 2750 - 2650

NIFTY - nothing new expect maintaining the last week (31 Jan.09)opinion : Marching towards 3120 . ( In-between resistance 2925 and support 2775 ) (Repeated opinion for the last two months is : Nifty locked between 2500-3250 (already 16 weeks are over) range. Big move may happen once it break this locked range until then this kind of trading range only possible .)

CRUDE OIL - Last six months fall already arrested around $34. Jan.09 price movements once again confirmed it GOLD - Fresh upmove resumed. Breaked the in-between resistance of $ 925 .

NIFTY - Marching towards 3120 . ( In-between resistance 2925 and support 2775 )

NIFTY - Below 2690 marching towards 2500 (upside resistance 2730-2750)

NIFTY - After tested 2700, now the pull back is going on. it may go upto 2900-2930 levels. If close above 2930 only trend reversal possible for short term. otherwise the low may be test once again. (As published on 27 Dec.08 Nifty locked between 2500-3250 range (in between lock 2800-3100) Big move may happen once it break this locked range until then this kind of trading range only possible)

NIFTY - again toped out at 3147 unable to break 3240 now the support 2900. If break and close below this level downside may expect 2690 and 2500.

SENSEX RESISTANCE 12000 - 12900 SUPPORT 6900 - 6000

DOW RESISTANCE - 9600 - 10000 NASDAQ RESISTANCE - 1700 - 1900 S&P 500 RESISTANCE - 1000 - 1100

FTSE RESISTANCE - 4700 - 5000

RESISTANCE - 5200 - 5700

RESISTANCE - 2100 - 2300

RESISTANCE - 9500 - 10500

RESISTANCE - 18400- 19600

RESISTANCE - 16600- 18600

RESISTANCE - 5300- 5600

RESISTANCE - 3700-3900

RESISTANCE - 2700-3000

RESISTANCE - 44600-45000

RESISTANCE - 4240-4300

CRUDE OIL levels for the year 2009 : Support $ 34-32 Resistance $ 67-70 Above 70 may be 102

GOLD levels for the year 2009: Trend $ 866 above this levels (in between resistance 925) target may be 1050 and 1199 below the trend downside may expect 717 after that 532

The above 2009 year chart is my opinion chart. It may be wrong but my opinions are opinions. Now let me opinion figure wise for the year 2009 : First it may rise upto 3600+ or 3800+ and then it may fall upto 1800 +/- and then it may close this year flat around 2900 +/- (it every range deviation allowed even upto 300 points +/-).

NIFTY - Even though now toped out at 3110, but it won't give a clear signal (no spike, no big volume and even no big trading interest) for the next big move either downside or upside (as such favour to downside). but one thing we may expect that next month it may be a big move, for that it require to break either 2500 in downside or 3250 on upside to decide the next big move. so let us wait for the clear signal otherwise trade with in the range of 2500-3250.

NIFTY - Today Closed above 2850 so now marching towards 3120 then above this level may go upto maximum 3500-3550.

CRUDE OIL - Marching towards $43 but Rock-bottom $34.

NIFTY - In December, If Close above 2820-2850 then only Upside possible. may go upto 3120 and/or maximum 3500-3550. If unable to close above 2850 then downside may expect 2380 then 2080.

NIFTY - As expected (posted date 02 nov.), low range of 2500 reached last week. So now this is bottom for the next pullback that may go upto, at the best, maximum 3500 (in between resistance is part of the trade)

If Indian Rupees Close above 50 another one or two days in a row then it may Marching towards 59-61 against U.S. Dollors .

NIFTY - November may be net up month, range between 2500 to 3500. This pullback may be top-out in December and fall may starts once again from there and it may continue upto January 2009 marching towards 2000-1800.

NIFTY - Already Closed far below 2800, so may marching towards 2000-1800.

Almost all the stock markets in the world are marching or marched towards very dangerous zone. Probably we may not see the uptrend for several years ie. 5 to 10 years. Even more clear picture may emerge at the end of this year only. May wait end of the year Opinion....

INDIAN REAL ESTATE - Any time Marching towards 2006 First Quater Prices. Don't be surprise even if it touch 2005 or 2004 prices in select areas.

GOLD - Marching towards $600 and then $ 420-380.

NIFTY -   Closed below 3200. So now may touch 2800+ in coming week(s).

BRAZIL - IBOVESPA SAO PAULO - If it close below 33000 two days in a row, then it may come down to 19000+

UK - FTSE 100 - Twelve years low was 3278. Friday close was 3932. It may going to take support around that twelve years low. But it close this year below that level, downtrend may continue another several years.

JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 - Twenty five years low was 7600. Friday Close was 8276. So this year if it close below 7600, God only can save the Japan Stock Market.

U.S.A. - Dow Jones Industrial Average - 7000+ will be the support. But.. But... If it close this year below 7000, then it may going to trade three digit figures (ie., below 1000) in coming year(s).

NIFTY - Most probably Yesterday Low of 3199 or coming week low may be the bottom-out for the recent fall. From here we may expect a very decent pull-back that may go upto 3800 or 4050. It may be in a jig-jack pattern. Nov.08 may be the upside month and next fall may starts once again in Dec. 08. In that fall it may touch 2800. That may be the final fall for this downtrend market which was started at 6357 on Jan.'08. (Please refer my Opinion posted on 27th January 2008 titled as VISSION or MISSION) But.. But... If it close below 2800 for two or three days in a row then next stop may be 2000-1800. After all, It is my Opinion only.

NIFTY - Even the pullback unable to go beyond 4300. So That was the pull-back for the so called American bail out package of $700 billion that to unable convince the congress till date. Now What next to our NIFTY is, If It break and close below 3900, may expect 3500 to 3200.

NIFTY - Technically speaking after the double-bottom formation from 3790-3800, Pull-back can not go beyond 4400-4450. But. but.. last week high voltage drama in the american financial markets and because of that drama, entire world stock markets actions and reactions raises various doubts about the high of nifty. So beyond 4450 , it may go upto 4800+ to 4900+. (In coming days perception will dominate over technicals)

NIFTY - As expected (Opinion posted on 08 September 08 and 30 August 08) fall came and now arrested at 3900+ for time-being. May expect a pullback upto 4200-4250. Falling momentum aggreviate once break and close below 3900.

CRUDE OIL -  Now nearing the expected target  of  $ 101-98 (refer 09 August 08 posted opinion). May expect  a very good bounce from there.  dead cat bounce or dead rat bounce (whatever you call it). But. But.. If It it close below $ 99-98 in two days in a row then may expect $ 85-82.  

NIFTY - Most probably Either today or this week high may be the TOP-OUT for this pull back rally , which was started at 3790 on july 08.

NIFTY - If Close above 4400, then may expect some more pullback upto 4550-4600. Otherwise fall will continue in a side ways manner. In downside may expect 4100 and below that 3900. Falling momentum starts once it breaks and close below 3900.

NIFTY - July 26, 2008 posted opinion (titled ROUND TWO) is still valid. May expect 4700-4900 levels and may hold this levels (4400-4900) some more time. THIS IS ONLY A PULL BACK RALLY.

CRUDE OIL gave the TOP OUT signal on third week of JULY 2008(refer july 18, 2008 posted opinion), now the fall is going on. May expect optimum downside target of $ 101 - 98 levels.

NIFTY - As expected after the pullback of 4485, now the correction is going on. In this correction it may come down to 4250 and/or 4100 levels. From there, may expect once again the pullback rise but next time it may be slow and steady. If it break and close above 4485 then that pullback rise may go even upto 4700-4900 levels. It may hold this level (ie.4400-4900) for some more time to distribute. May expect next big fall once again in September '08 onwards . I MAY BE WRONG. BUT IT IS MY OPINION.

NIFTY - Eventhough Weekly Chart Showing good sign of Downtrend arrest pattern (time being ONLY). But next week Political Trend may decide the Market Trend. (ie. next PULL BACK STRENGTH)

CRUDE OIL - Topped out @ $. 147.27

NIFTY - Now 3848 is the support for this Fall. May expect a pullback upto 4250 or/and 4485. Trade below 3848 may expect 3600.

N IFTY - Coming week may be the bottom finding week for the next PULL BACK . that bottom may be Minimum 4100-4050 and Optimum 3950-3900 .

What else to say , except to maintain the 05 June 2008 Opinion. So it continues......

NIFTY - May expect a very Big Fall at any time, maximum another 3 to 6 Weeks timeframe. (After all, It is my Opinion only)

NIFTY - Neutral Zone - 4800-4850 ; Upside - 5100-5125 ; Downside - 4625-4600.

NIFTY - Once again marching towards 4850-4800.

March 29, 2008 Opinion still valid. Once again I repeat, 4850-4800 is the crucial level for short term trend.

NIFTY - Last week Nifty unable to hold above the pullback support level of 4800-4850. so now it become the resistance for the next round fall. ie. 4100-4050.

NIFTY , Broken the immediate resistance of 4850-4800 . Now this level will become the support for this pullback. It may go upto 5100. If Close above 5100 for two days in a row. then maximum topout is 5500-5600 . This is pullback rally ONLY.

NIFTY , now the in-between third leg in the downtrend is going on... with a upper resistance of 4800-4850 and marching towards 4100-4050. (No change in VISION OR MISSION opinion dated 27 JAN. 2008) (Last week, Market once again confirming a major downtrend. Major trends often have a way of running further and longer than most people can imagine.)

As for as Nifty is concerned, no change in the earlier opinion. Worst is yet to come.

If NIFTY Close three days consequently above 5600 , then that will be the Major Trend reversal. Unless or otherwise, everything pullback only.

NIFTY - selling arrested around 4800-4830, now expect a rise may be upto 5170-5200.

Just 15 days before, all the market participants (FII, DII, QIB, HNI, RETAIL etc., etc.,) were ready or even invested (committed to invest) 5 lac crore in a company (till date even their website is under construction only), but today, the same market participants are not ready to pump 0.40% (ie.2000 cr.) of the earlier committed amount to take delivery of the same company. Moral of the Story is always PERCEPTION dominates the Market price, technical and fundamentals just following it.

Above 5400 ; Target 5650-5680. unless otherwise sideways pattern of 5000+ to 5300+ Next round of Sell mode starts once its CLOSE below 5000.

Before making my opinion, I want to EMPHASIS that it is my opinion and it may be wrong but opinions are opinions. The recent sharp fall was the first leg of DOWNTREND. Now the pullback is going on... After that expect a fall once again and pullback again and again fall... This process will go on another 6 months to 15 months. The worst and final fall of this downtrend journey NIFTY   touch 3200-2800. Next UPTREND will start from there. In that uptrend, NIFTY may be going to trade five digit figure on or after the year 2012. In the present circumstance(based on the past records and future risk & potential), this is my opinion. If the situations demand, I may change my opinion. WATCH.....

now upside may expect 5400-5430

next target 4480-4450 (this may happen after a pullback or even without...)

3I INFOTECH below 129 ACC below 904 AMBUJACEM below 132 APTECHT below 304 ARVINDMILL below 68 BIOCON below 520 BONGAIREFN below 87 DIVISLAB below 1551 ESCORTS below 127 GESHIP below 451 GMRINFRA below 197 GRASIM below 3279 HDFCBANK below 1537 HINDOILEXP below 124 HINDZINC below 716 HOTELEELA below 57 INDIACEM below 267 INFOSYSTCH below 1423 JSTAINLESS below 203 KPIT below 111 LAXMIMACH below 2987 MARUTI below 891 MATRIXLABS below 210 MOSERBAER below 259 NAGARCONST below 282 NAGARFERT below 64 NIITTECH below 201 PATNI below 277 SAIL below 235 SATYAMCOMP below 379 SESAGOA below 3266 TCS below 952 ULTRACEMCO below 923

Marching towards around 5500

INDIA - Support 18000, 16000 Target 24000, 26500 BRAZIL - Support 58000, 51000 Target - 76000, 83500 CHINA - Support 4800, 3500 Target 7000, 8400 HANGSENG - Support 26500, 21000 Target 34500, 40000 SINGAPORE - Resistance 3450 , 4000 Target 3000, 2500 JAPAN - Resistance 16000, 17000 Target 13500, 12200 DOW - Resistance 13200, Target 12000, 10800