NIFTY - Caution - Trend line broken
OPINION will follow within two days ......
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POSITIONAL BREAKOUT STOCKS WITH TARGET
STOCKS NAME - BREAKOUT PRICE * - TARGET PRICE ( Target price is valid as long as above the breakout price) ASIANPAINT - 1334 - 1968 AUROPHARMA - 825 - 1549 BAJAJELEC - 750 - 1367 BANKBARODA - 501 - 832 BERGEPAINT - 69 - 113 BPCL - 575 - 908 CADILAHC - 412 -624 CANFINHOME - 94 - 150 CENTRALBK - 152 - 243 CIPLA - 304 - 463 COROMNFERT - 200 -326 CRISIL - 4270 - 6700 DABUR - 134 - 207 DHANBANK - 164 -290 DOLPHINOFF 387 - 670 DRREDDY - 889 -1283 EMAMILTD - 388-596 EXIDEIND - 91 -147 FORTIS - 123 -200 GAIL - 371 -575 GLAXO - 1554 -2404 GLODYNE - 350 -617 GRUH - 227 -374 GUJRATGAS - 195 -305 INFOSYSTCH - 2415 - 3790 IPCALAB - 795 - 1305 IRB - 222 -380 ITC - 240 -347 JAYSREETEA - 221 -382 JINDALSTEL - 560 -1033 JISLJALEQS - 767 -1307 JKIL - 132 - 228 M&M - 1001 -1765 MARICO - 85- 123 MARUTI - 1250 - 2063 MCLEODRUSS - 160 -285 NBVENTURES -352 -613 ORIENTABRA - 20.50 -34.65 PAGEIND - 558 -860 PIRHEALTH - 389 -614 PNB - 720 -1154 RENUKA - 167 -307 RUCHINFRA - 56 -104 SABERORGAN - 33.50 -57 SE...
NIFTY - ALERT
NIFTY - If trade and CLOSE below 4900 (until then no problem) then 6 months uptrend trendline (first wave of this mega bull trend ) going to break and confirm the major correction. It may be 20 % to 30 % fall from the top of 5111 (01 Oct. 2009). Major confirmation comes once it close below 4575. so BE ALERT .
NIFTY - follow-up 10 sep.09 view
NIFTY - stop revised from 4610 closing basis to 4780 closing basis.
NIFTY - my other view
NIFTY - If close above 4689 three days in a row (now already closed three days in a row) then upside target may be 5467 and stop for this breakout is 4610 on closing basis.
NIFTY - CAUTION
NIFTY - Resistance around 4700 zones. But above 4750 may attack 5012. Caution : we are in last leg of this rally which was started at 2500 levels. May be another 300 or 400 points rally possible but whenever the peak attained we may expect 20% to 30% fall from the top. It is my opinion, and my opinion only.
NIFTY
NIFTY - As expected it made double top around 4650-4700 zone. Now 4465-4420 is the support zone. If Break and close below 4420 then may expect 4260-4220. In upside once again resistance around 4700 levels and above 4750 may attack the MAJOR AND MAJOR resistance of 5012.
NIFTY may be Double Top
NIFTY - may form lower top or double top as per the trendline. so BE ALERT @ 4650-4700 zone. If trade above 4700 comfortably then stop may be below 4650 and target may be 4900 - 5050 zone.
Next move of NIFTY
NIFTY - Fall arrested and reversed from the support zone of between 4000-3800. Now marching towards 4550-4600 zone
BEYOND
NIFTY - moved beyond imagination (somewhat irrational) now may be attack 4650 or 4800 Any way the gap is going to fillup any time .
NIFTY
NIFTY - This month resistance 3500 ( refer opinion dated 03 Apr.09). Now, If it trade above 3500 comfortably then may expect 3650-3700 this month itself.
NIFTY DOWNTREND OVER
NIFTY - At last now we know the base for this downtrend which was started on Jan.2008. hereafter we may see one rally. ( before that, correction may or may not come even upto 3000+ or 2900+) which may going to fizzled out in between 3650+ minimum or 4100+ optimum. (Note : The above opinion is based on price movement. In future, if any thing happen worst for the economy or country, my opinion may change.)
TOP OUT or BREAK OUT ?
NIFTY - may be top out anywhere between 3100-3250. If it trade above 3250, it will be the signal for breakout . After the breakout it may come down even upto 3000+ but it will be only correction. Upside may expect 3650-3850 But if it unable to break and trade above 3250 then we may expect once again 2500 + Be ready for either way possibility. TOP OUT or BREAK OUT ?
OPEN MINDED OPINION for NIFTY
If NIFTY will not break and trade comfortably below 2500 before June 2009 , we may come to a conclusion that the bottom was already over in Oct.2008 itself. (it may be more confirmed, If it break and trade above 3250). i hope that i am the first person to say so. It may be wrong but my opinion is opinion.
NIFTY
NIFTY - No change in the existing Orbit of 2500-3250 (very long sideways moments still continue.....) So it took support at 2500+ and now again try to attack in higherside 2800 and 2900
NIFTY for the month of MARCH 2009
NIFTY resistance 2800 If it break and close the resist , then target in upside 2900 and 3100. If unable to break the resistance downside we may expect 2600 and 2500. And below 2500 FREE FALL ..... .. ...
WHAT IS IN
I completly withdraw the 14 Feb.09 positional including NIFTY. When the market is in the single orbit (ie. 2500 to 3250) for the past 18 weeks and moved and trade in between all these 18 weeks, big positional thinking should be avoid ( i got the some reversal signal on second week of feb.09 but it reversed in third week of feb.09 itself). so back to squre one, let the market clear the above mentioned orbit, then think about the next move. Last week most the countries were in new low or near to the new low. ie. one country sentiment dragging the other countries and this process may go on some more time before it delink. In the meantime, GOLD may going to bubble (target $1800 to $2400 it is possible if it trade above $1200) with in 12 to 18 months period and after that bust like CURDE OIL (The same kind of people who manipulated the CRUDE OIL are now trying to play in the GOLD beacuse they don't have any other market to play. For this they may plant stories like curuncies are weak ...
POSITIONAL
APIL (cmp 286) - Target 360-460 / Stop 245 CHAMBLFERT (cmp 42) - Target 55 - 67 / Stop 35 GNFC (cmp 63) - Target 99 - 121 / Stop 54 JPASSOCIAT (cmp 75) - Target 128 - 154 / Stop 58 JKLAKSHMI (cmp 42) - Target 74 - 92 / Stop 35 LITL (cmp 137) - Target 174 - 224 / Stop 115 NAGARFERT (cmp 18) - Target 28 - 34 / Stop 14 RAJESHEXPO (cmp 25) - Target 45 - 55 / Stop 19 RELINFRA (cmp 570) - Target 680 - 920 / Stop 505
NIFTY
NIFTY - nothing new expect maintaining the last week (31 Jan.09)opinion : Marching towards 3120 . ( In-between resistance 2925 and support 2775 ) (Repeated opinion for the last two months is : Nifty locked between 2500-3250 (already 16 weeks are over) range. Big move may happen once it break this locked range until then this kind of trading range only possible .)
CRUDE OIL and GOLD
CRUDE OIL - Last six months fall already arrested around $34. Jan.09 price movements once again confirmed it GOLD - Fresh upmove resumed. Breaked the in-between resistance of $ 925 .
NIFTY
NIFTY - After tested 2700, now the pull back is going on. it may go upto 2900-2930 levels. If close above 2930 only trend reversal possible for short term. otherwise the low may be test once again. (As published on 27 Dec.08 Nifty locked between 2500-3250 range (in between lock 2800-3100) Big move may happen once it break this locked range until then this kind of trading range only possible)
NIFTY
NIFTY - again toped out at 3147 unable to break 3240 now the support 2900. If break and close below this level downside may expect 2690 and 2500.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
DOW RESISTANCE - 9600 - 10000 NASDAQ RESISTANCE - 1700 - 1900 S&P 500 RESISTANCE - 1000 - 1100
CRUDE OIL - 2009
CRUDE OIL levels for the year 2009 : Support $ 34-32 Resistance $ 67-70 Above 70 may be 102
GOLD - 2009
GOLD levels for the year 2009: Trend $ 866 above this levels (in between resistance 925) target may be 1050 and 1199 below the trend downside may expect 717 after that 532
NIFTY - 2009 YEAR CHART IT MAY BE
The above 2009 year chart is my opinion chart. It may be wrong but my opinions are opinions. Now let me opinion figure wise for the year 2009 : First it may rise upto 3600+ or 3800+ and then it may fall upto 1800 +/- and then it may close this year flat around 2900 +/- (it every range deviation allowed even upto 300 points +/-).
NIFTY
NIFTY - Even though now toped out at 3110, but it won't give a clear signal (no spike, no big volume and even no big trading interest) for the next big move either downside or upside (as such favour to downside). but one thing we may expect that next month it may be a big move, for that it require to break either 2500 in downside or 3250 on upside to decide the next big move. so let us wait for the clear signal otherwise trade with in the range of 2500-3250.
NIFTY - reminder
NIFTY - Today Closed above 2850 so now marching towards 3120 then above this level may go upto maximum 3500-3550.
WHAT IN DECEMBER
NIFTY - In December, If Close above 2820-2850 then only Upside possible. may go upto 3120 and/or maximum 3500-3550. If unable to close above 2850 then downside may expect 2380 then 2080.
NIFTY
NIFTY - As expected (posted date 02 nov.), low range of 2500 reached last week. So now this is bottom for the next pullback that may go upto, at the best, maximum 3500 (in between resistance is part of the trade)
USD to INR
If Indian Rupees Close above 50 another one or two days in a row then it may Marching towards 59-61 against U.S. Dollors .
NIFTY
NIFTY - November may be net up month, range between 2500 to 3500. This pullback may be top-out in December and fall may starts once again from there and it may continue upto January 2009 marching towards 2000-1800.
WORLD STOCK MARKETS
Almost all the stock markets in the world are marching or marched towards very dangerous zone. Probably we may not see the uptrend for several years ie. 5 to 10 years. Even more clear picture may emerge at the end of this year only. May wait end of the year Opinion....
INDIAN REAL ESTATE
INDIAN REAL ESTATE - Any time Marching towards 2006 First Quater Prices. Don't be surprise even if it touch 2005 or 2004 prices in select areas.
Opinion for IBOVESPA SAO PAULO
BRAZIL - IBOVESPA SAO PAULO - If it close below 33000 two days in a row, then it may come down to 19000+
Opinion for FTSE 100
UK - FTSE 100 - Twelve years low was 3278. Friday close was 3932. It may going to take support around that twelve years low. But it close this year below that level, downtrend may continue another several years.
Opinion for NIKKEI 225
JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 - Twenty five years low was 7600. Friday Close was 8276. So this year if it close below 7600, God only can save the Japan Stock Market.
Opinion for DOW
U.S.A. - Dow Jones Industrial Average - 7000+ will be the support. But.. But... If it close this year below 7000, then it may going to trade three digit figures (ie., below 1000) in coming year(s).
NIFTY PULLBACK TIME
NIFTY - Most probably Yesterday Low of 3199 or coming week low may be the bottom-out for the recent fall. From here we may expect a very decent pull-back that may go upto 3800 or 4050. It may be in a jig-jack pattern. Nov.08 may be the upside month and next fall may starts once again in Dec. 08. In that fall it may touch 2800. That may be the final fall for this downtrend market which was started at 6357 on Jan.'08. (Please refer my Opinion posted on 27th January 2008 titled as VISSION or MISSION) But.. But... If it close below 2800 for two or three days in a row then next stop may be 2000-1800. After all, It is my Opinion only.
NIFTY - WHAT NEXT ?
NIFTY - Even the pullback unable to go beyond 4300. So That was the pull-back for the so called American bail out package of $700 billion that to unable convince the congress till date. Now What next to our NIFTY is, If It break and close below 3900, may expect 3500 to 3200.
Unconvincing Opinion of NIFTY
NIFTY - Technically speaking after the double-bottom formation from 3790-3800, Pull-back can not go beyond 4400-4450. But. but.. last week high voltage drama in the american financial markets and because of that drama, entire world stock markets actions and reactions raises various doubts about the high of nifty. So beyond 4450 , it may go upto 4800+ to 4900+. (In coming days perception will dominate over technicals)
NIFTY
NIFTY - As expected (Opinion posted on 08 September 08 and 30 August 08) fall came and now arrested at 3900+ for time-being. May expect a pullback upto 4200-4250. Falling momentum aggreviate once break and close below 3900.
CRUDE OIL - REMINDER
CRUDE OIL - Now nearing the expected target of $ 101-98 (refer 09 August 08 posted opinion). May expect a very good bounce from there. dead cat bounce or dead rat bounce (whatever you call it). But. But.. If It it close below $ 99-98 in two days in a row then may expect $ 85-82.
MAY BE TOP-OUT
NIFTY - Most probably Either today or this week high may be the TOP-OUT for this pull back rally , which was started at 3790 on july 08.
NIFTY
NIFTY - If Close above 4400, then may expect some more pullback upto 4550-4600. Otherwise fall will continue in a side ways manner. In downside may expect 4100 and below that 3900. Falling momentum starts once it breaks and close below 3900.
FOLLOW UP - ROUND TWO
NIFTY - July 26, 2008 posted opinion (titled ROUND TWO) is still valid. May expect 4700-4900 levels and may hold this levels (4400-4900) some more time. THIS IS ONLY A PULL BACK RALLY.
FOLLOW UP - CRUDE OIL TOP OUT
CRUDE OIL gave the TOP OUT signal on third week of JULY 2008(refer july 18, 2008 posted opinion), now the fall is going on. May expect optimum downside target of $ 101 - 98 levels.
ROUND TWO
NIFTY - As expected after the pullback of 4485, now the correction is going on. In this correction it may come down to 4250 and/or 4100 levels. From there, may expect once again the pullback rise but next time it may be slow and steady. If it break and close above 4485 then that pullback rise may go even upto 4700-4900 levels. It may hold this level (ie.4400-4900) for some more time to distribute. May expect next big fall once again in September '08 onwards . I MAY BE WRONG. BUT IT IS MY OPINION.
NEXT PULL BACK TREND DECIDER
NIFTY - Eventhough Weekly Chart Showing good sign of Downtrend arrest pattern (time being ONLY). But next week Political Trend may decide the Market Trend. (ie. next PULL BACK STRENGTH)
PULL BACK
NIFTY - Now 3848 is the support for this Fall. May expect a pullback upto 4250 or/and 4485. Trade below 3848 may expect 3600.
NEXT
N IFTY - Coming week may be the bottom finding week for the next PULL BACK . that bottom may be Minimum 4100-4050 and Optimum 3950-3900 .
NIFTY - WHAT ELSE
What else to say , except to maintain the 05 June 2008 Opinion. So it continues......
BIG FALL
NIFTY - May expect a very Big Fall at any time, maximum another 3 to 6 Weeks timeframe. (After all, It is my Opinion only)
Opinion Repeat
March 29, 2008 Opinion still valid. Once again I repeat, 4850-4800 is the crucial level for short term trend.
NIFTY , now the in-between third leg in the downtrend is going on... with a upper resistance of 4800-4850 and marching towards 4100-4050. (No change in VISION OR MISSION opinion dated 27 JAN. 2008) (Last week, Market once again confirming a major downtrend. Major trends often have a way of running further and longer than most people can imagine.)
